{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/alligator-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/alligator-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"Alligator Periods and Shifts: 1,584 Settings Tested","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/alligator-settings","published":"2026-08-27","updated":"2026-08-30"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-08-30","question":"Does the Alligator's forward displacement act as a forecast, and is 13/8/5 special?","finding":"The displacement is a delay, not a forecast. A jaw pushed eight bars forward equals the undisplaced jaw eight bars earlier, with no exceptions across 74,958, 18,711 and 4,809 comparisons over three timeframes and two years. Removing it produced the better result in 103 of 198 matched runs, which is no difference overall, but on the published lips-crossing-teeth entry alone it was better in 52 of 66. The three lines are stacked in order — the 'eating' state — on 80.5% to 84.0% of bars, and 85.9% to 88.3% once the displacement is removed, so it cannot filter much. Compared one-to-one against four control sets containing no Fibonacci number, 13/8/5 finished ahead in 136 of 288, below half.","methodology":"Measured with Formiq's backtester across three readings: lips crossing teeth, all three stacked in order, and price closing outside all three. The only exit is the opposite signal, with entry and exit sharing one rule set. No stop or target in the main sweep.","scope":["USDJPY, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, with 2024 run identically for comparison","15-minute, hourly and four-hour bars","3 readings x 11 period sets (5 Fibonacci, 4 controls, 2 jaw-only) x 4 displacements (0/0/0, 4/3/2, 8/5/3, 16/10/6) = 132 per cell; 3 timeframes x 4 windows = 1,584 runs","0.3 pip spread fixed, 0.1 lots, filled at the close"],"keyResults":[{"label":"Runs where removing the displacement was better","value":"103 of 198 overall, 52 of 66 on the lips-teeth cross"},{"label":"Share of bars with the three lines stacked in order","value":"80.5% to 84.0%, rising to 85.9% to 88.3% without the displacement"},{"label":"13/8/5 against non-Fibonacci controls","value":"ahead in 136 of 288 one-to-one comparisons"}],"limitations":["One pair, two years. The Alligator came from commodity futures; on another market even the share of time the mouth is open would change.","Only four displacements were tried (0/0/0, 4/3/2, 8/5/3, 16/10/6), not a continuous sweep.","The averaging method and price input were measured on the lines only, never traded. Switching SMMA to EMA changes the stacking order on 27 to 29% of bars.","The spread is fixed at 0.3 pips. A setting with 0.59 pips of room does not survive that assumption breaking.","The four-hour samples are small, 25 to 290 trades a year depending on the reading. It reversed completely between 2024 and 2025, and two years cannot say which was the exception."]}