{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/gmma-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/gmma-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"GMMA Tested 216 Ways: Do 12 Moving Averages Beat 2?","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/gmma-settings","published":"2026-08-26","updated":"2026-08-30"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-08-26","question":"Does GMMA need twelve lines, and does thinning the ribbons change the result?","finding":"This test could not find a use for all twelve. Holding each ribbon's mean period at 9 and 45 and thinning from six lines to one, one line beat six in 21 of 36 matched runs, with median net of +1,313.5 pips against +1,371.5. A one-line GMMA and an EMA 9 / EMA 45 crossover produced the same 184 trades and +393.5 pips on hourly bars in 2025. All 18 settings on the 15-minute chart were profitable in both years (medians +1,917.9 and +1,703.6 pips), against 14 of 18 hourly and none on four-hour, where every setting made money in 2024 and every setting lost in 2025. What survived was the gap between the ribbons: the widest quartile raised the win rate from 24.32% to 32.96% on 15-minute bars, 22.18% to 35.98% hourly and 21.74% to 34.78% on four-hour.","methodology":"Measured with Formiq's backtester across three triggers — cross, expansion and all-above. The only exit is the opposite signal, with entry and exit sharing one rule set. Ribbon state is read on the bar before the fill so the trade's own move cannot leak into the feature.","scope":["USDJPY, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, with 2024 run identically for comparison","M15, H1 and H4","3 triggers x 6 line counts (1 to 6, mean period held at 9 and 45) = 18 per timeframe per window; 216 runs in total","0.3 pip spread, zero slippage, 0.1 lots; 5,217 ribbon-state records"],"keyResults":[{"label":"One line against six","value":"one beat six in 21 of 36 matched runs; medians +1,313.5 and +1,371.5 pips"},{"label":"Profitable in both years","value":"all 18 on M15, 14 of 18 hourly, none on H4"},{"label":"Win rate by ribbon gap quartile","value":"M15 24.32% to 32.96%, H1 22.18% to 35.98%, H4 21.74% to 34.78%"}],"limitations":["One pair, USDJPY, and two years. Nothing here guarantees the same behaviour elsewhere.","The two years are very different: 2024 rose 1,632 pips within a 2,237-pip range and 2025 finished 56 pips lower within a 1,900-pip range.","There is one way of thinning the ribbon here. Endpoints (3-15 and 30-60) are held and the interior is spaced evenly, so the mean period does not move.","The six-line row uses Guppy's exact periods, so its means are 8.83 and 43.33 rather than the 9.0 and 45.0 of every other row.","Entries and exits use bar closes. Real fills differ."]}