{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/inside-outside-bar-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/inside-outside-bar-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"Is the Inside Bar Breakout Profitable? 192 Backtests","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/inside-outside-bar-settings","published":"2026-09-10","updated":"2026-09-10"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-09-10","question":"Does an inside bar breakout beat an ordinary break of the same level?","finding":"No. On the hourly chart in 2025, 6,126 bars cleared a two-bar-old high or low and 566 of them (9.24%) followed a contained bar. Ten bars later the break's direction had held for 49.47% of the contained breaks against 50.59% of the rest; 2024 reads 47.68% against 51.19%. Across three timeframes and two years the contained break came out ahead in two cells of six, on different charts in different years. Fading the break beats taking it in four cells of six, but against an ordinary break of the same level the fade is ahead by only 0.21 to 2.16 points and behind in two.","methodology":"Breaks were counted with the same code path the backtester runs, and the control is the same two-bar-old level cleared with the previous bar not contained. Trades enter at the close of the breaking bar and exit either on a break of the other side or after ten bars, at a fixed 0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots and no slippage. Filters are built by switching on existing conditions beside the pattern. 8 conditions x 3 timeframes x 4 windows x with and without cost = 192 runs. Every figure is checked in research/inside-bar-verify.run.ts.","scope":["Instrument: USD/JPY","Period: 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31 and 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31","Timeframes: 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour","Conditions: four inside bar, three harami, plus a ten-bar exit"],"keyResults":[{"label":"Share of all breaks that follow an inside bar","value":"9.24 to 12.54%"},{"label":"Cells beating an ordinary break","value":"2 of 6 (15-minute 2025 +1.11, 4-hour 2024 +2.29)"},{"label":"Fading the break against an ordinary break","value":"Ahead in 4 of 6 by 0.21 to 2.16 points, behind in 2"},{"label":"Breaks clearing both ends of the mother on one bar","value":"8.32 to 31.79%, all resolved to a buy by the engine"},{"label":"Outside bar","value":"Ahead of an ordinary break in 4 of 6, by -0.81 to +2.19 points"},{"label":"Overlap with the harami","value":"0.91 to 2.80% of harami signals; the two complete one bar apart"},{"label":"Profitable in both years","value":"2 of 8 hourly, 1 on the 15-minute, 3 on the 4-hour. None on two or more charts"}],"limitations":["One pair over two years.","Fills are at the close with a fixed spread and no slippage, so live results will differ.","When one bar clears both ends of the mother, a single candle cannot say which came first.","Runs of three or more contained bars number between 1 and 21, so that column decides nothing."]}