{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/mfi-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/mfi-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"MFI Oversold Entry Frequency: 240 Settings Tested","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/mfi-settings","published":"2026-08-24","updated":"2026-08-30"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-08-30","question":"Is there an MFI setting that stays profitable from one year to the next?","finding":"This test did not find one. On 15-minute bars the textbook long setup — period 14, buy below 20, close above 80 — took 145 trades for +1,379.1 pips in 2025 and 113 trades for −654.2 pips in 2024. Many settings barely fire: on four-hour bars 48 of 240 took no trades at all in a year and 137 took fewer than ten; on hourly bars 20 took none and 81 fewer than ten. Restricted to settings with at least 20 trades, the hourly long side in 2025 won 47.5% to 72.73% of trades, yet the median net result was −304 pips and only 13 of those 65 settings finished positive.","methodology":"Measured with Formiq's backtester. The long side buys when MFI drops below an entry level (10 to 30) and closes when it rises above an exit level (50 to 90); the short side mirrors it. No stop or target. MFI is RSI weighted by volume, and forex has no consolidated exchange volume to weight by.","scope":["USDJPY, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, with 2024 run identically for comparison","15-minute, hourly and four-hour bars; 6,226 hourly bars in 2025, 24,903 on 15-minute, 1,610 on four-hour","6 periods (7 to 40) x 5 entry levels x 4 exit levels x 2 directions = 240 settings, per timeframe and per year","0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots, zero slippage"],"keyResults":[{"label":"Textbook long setup on 15-minute bars","value":"145 trades and +1,379.1 pips in 2025; 113 trades and −654.2 pips in 2024"},{"label":"Settings that did not fire on four-hour bars","value":"48 of 240 took no trades; 137 took fewer than ten"},{"label":"Long side with 20+ trades, hourly 2025","value":"47.5% to 72.73% win rates, median −304 pips, 13 of 65 positive"}],"limitations":["One pair, two years.","Forex volume is not a market-wide figure, and MFI's calculation rests on it.","Entries and exits both fill at bar closes.","Settings with very few trades are included in the aggregates; the figures excluding them are given separately in the article."]}