{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/moving-average-cross-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/moving-average-cross-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"Is the Golden Cross Profitable on Forex? 280 Moving Average Tests","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/moving-average-cross-settings","published":"2026-08-25","updated":"2026-08-30"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-08-30","question":"Which periods and timeframes keep a moving average crossover profitable?","finding":"The 15-minute chart kept the most settings profitable. Settings positive in both 2024 and 2025 numbered 205 of 280 on M15, 172 of 280 on H1 and 32 of 280 on H4. On the hourly chart all 30 settings with a slow line of 25 were profitable in both years, against 4 of 40 with a slow line of 200 — the longer the slow line, the more the years disagreed. The largest 2025 result was 12/50 WMA on 15-minute bars at 751 trades, +2,978.0 pips and a 33.95% win rate, but 2024's best, 20/75 SMA, returned −234.6 pips in 2025, so one year does not pick the next. The textbook 50/200 SMA on four-hour bars made +1,357.5 pips on 7 trades in 2024 and +173.6 on 14 in 2025, too few to judge, and lost 1,340.4 pips on 47 hourly trades in 2025.","methodology":"Measured with Formiq's backtester. A long fills at the close of the bar where the fast line crosses above the slow one, a short where it crosses below, and the opposite cross closes the position and reverses it at the same close. No stop, no target, no time exit. Pips are recalculated from each trade's fill prices.","scope":["USDJPY, 1 January to 31 December 2025, with 2024 run identically for comparison","15-minute, hourly and four-hour bars; 24,903 15-minute bars in 2025, 6,226 hourly and 1,610 four-hour","8 fast periods (5 to 50) x 8 slow periods (20 to 200), keeping the 56 pairs where fast is shorter, x 5 calculation methods = 280 settings","0.3 pip spread, no slippage, 0.1 lots, charged on both fills"],"keyResults":[{"label":"Profitable in both years","value":"205 of 280 on M15, 172 of 280 on H1, 32 of 280 on H4"},{"label":"Slow line on the hourly chart","value":"all 30 settings at 25 profitable in both years; 4 of 40 at 200"},{"label":"Largest 2025 result, 12/50 WMA on M15","value":"751 trades, +2,978.0 pips, 33.95% win rate; average win +56.74, average loss −23.17 pips"}],"limitations":["The test covers USDJPY in 2024 and 2025. Other pairs and periods were not tested.","Entries and exits use bar closes. Actual fill prices may differ.","The spread is fixed at 0.3 pips. Real spreads change by session and around economic releases.","A slow period of 200 uses 200 bars from before the test window. A chart with less history may not produce the same line."]}