{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/moving-average-slope-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/moving-average-slope-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"Moving Average Slope Settings: 2,100 Tests","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/moving-average-slope-settings","published":"2026-09-10","updated":"2026-09-10"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-09-10","question":"Does trading the direction of a moving average remain profitable across periods and lookbacks?","finding":"Settings profitable in both years: M15 93/175, H1 104/175, H4 28/175. The default SMA 20 with a five-bar lookback made money in both years on H1, but lost in the first half of 2025.","methodology":"Measured with Formiq's backtester. Buy when the current MA exceeds its value at the lookback bar; otherwise sell. Close and reverse at the close when the condition changes.","scope":["USDJPY, 2024 and 2025, plus each half of 2025","7 periods × 5 lookbacks × 5 methods × 3 timeframes × 4 windows = 2,100 runs","Fixed 0.3-pip spread, 0.1 lot"],"keyResults":[{"label":"Settings profitable in both years","value":"H1: 104/175"},{"label":"Default, H1, 2025","value":"289 trades, 39.45% wins, +875.5 pips"}],"limitations":["Two historical years of USDJPY do not establish future profitability or transfer to other pairs.","Signals and fills share the bar close. Spread is fixed; slippage and swaps are excluded."]}