{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/star-patterns-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/star-patterns-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"Morning Star and Evening Star: Do They Reverse? 240 Backtests","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/star-patterns-settings","published":"2026-09-09","updated":"2026-09-09"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-09-09","question":"Do the morning and evening star beat the colour sequence they are built on, and does the gap they are named for exist?","finding":"The gap does not. A middle bar whose whole range clears the first bar's close, with a third bar clearing the middle in turn, occurred 0 times in the 4,558 signals across three timeframes and two years; on bodies alone 0.94 to 2.10% qualified. Currency runs continuously, so only 0.85 to 3.42% of bars open a full pip away from the previous close. On performance, the pattern beat its own colour sequence (a down bar, anything, an up bar) in one cell of six. Moving the recovery threshold from 0% to 100% of the first body changes the hourly hit rate by 1.53 points in 2025 and 0.67 in 2024, and dropping the small-middle clause leaves the rate within -1.88 to +0.26 points of the sequence.","methodology":"Signals were counted with the same code path the backtester runs, and the control is every instance of the colour sequence in both directions. Trades enter at the close of the third bar and exit either on the opposite star or after ten bars, at a fixed 0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots and no slippage. Each star produces one side only, so the per-trade result also has the market's own ten-bar drift subtracted. 10 conditions x 3 timeframes x 4 windows x with and without cost = 240 runs. Every figure in the article is checked against the run output in research/star-verify.run.ts.","scope":["Instrument: USD/JPY","Period: 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31 and 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31","Timeframes: 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour","Conditions: morning star, evening star, and three filters each"],"keyResults":[{"label":"Signals with a full gap on both sides","value":"0 of 4,558. Body-only gaps: 0.94 to 2.10%"},{"label":"Bars opening a full pip from the previous close","value":"0.85 to 3.42%. Some difference exists on 93 to 94%"},{"label":"Cells beating the colour sequence","value":"1 of 6 (15-minute 2025, +0.61 points)"},{"label":"Moving the recovery from 0% to 100% of the first body","value":"The hourly rate spans 1.53 points in 2025 and 0.67 in 2024"},{"label":"Dropping the small-middle clause","value":"Leaves the rate -1.88 to +0.26 points from the colour sequence"},{"label":"Profitable in both years on a ten-bar exit","value":"2 of 10 hourly, 3 on the 15-minute, 2 on the 4-hour. None on all three"},{"label":"Positive per trade in both years after the drift","value":"4 of 30 timeframe-condition pairs, all on 16 to 80 trades a year"}],"limitations":["One pair over two years.","Fills are at the close with a fixed spread and no slippage, so live results will differ.","The zero gap count applies to 24-hour currency trading and not to markets that close overnight.","The filters are combinations of existing conditions, not thresholds added to the star test itself."]}