{"schemaVersion":"1.0","type":"BacktestEvidence","id":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/stochastic-settings/data.json","evidencePage":"https://formiq.jp/evidence/stochastic-settings","language":"en","article":{"title":"Best Stochastic Settings: 2,700 Tests of K/D and Smoothing","url":"https://formiq.jp/blog/stochastic-settings","published":"2026-09-09","updated":"2026-09-09"},"author":{"name":"Yuichi Saiki","alternateName":"斉木勇一","url":"https://formiq.jp/about/yuichi-saiki"},"verified":"2026-09-09","question":"Is there one stochastic setting that works on every timeframe?","finding":"This test did not find one. K/D crosses were profitable in both 2024 and 2025 for 1 of 75 settings on the 15-minute chart, 43 on the 1-hour and 56 on the 4-hour. On the 1-hour chart, all 15 K/D period combinations with smoothing set to 20 were profitable in both years, which does not establish future results. The common 14/3/3 cross returned +686.6 pips over 1,525 trades in 2024 and −49.7 pips over 1,510 trades in 2025 on the 1-hour chart, so it was not profitable in both years. Win rate was no guide: in 2025 the 1-hour 14/3/3 long fade won 60.38% of 106 trades and lost 574.9 pips, with an average win of 46.83 pips against an average loss of 85.05. A level-only rule never reads D, so changing D does not change that trading condition.","methodology":"Measured with Formiq's backtester. Crossovers enter on a K/D cross and exit on the opposite cross; fades enter at a level and exit at the opposite level. Positions still open at the end of each period are closed. Pre-start candles are provided for the indicator calculation. No stop or target in the main sweep.","scope":["USD/JPY: 2025, 2024 and the two halves of 2025, each run independently","15-minute, 1-hour and 4-hour charts","5 K lookbacks x 5 smoothing periods, with 3 D periods for crossovers and 3 level pairs for fades (D held at 3): 75 settings per rule, 3 rules x 3 timeframes x 4 periods = 2,700 runs","Candle-close fills, fixed 0.3 pip spread, zero slippage, 0.1 lot"],"keyResults":[{"label":"K/D crosses profitable in both years","value":"1 of 75 on 15-minute, 43 on 1-hour, 56 on 4-hour"},{"label":"The common 14/3/3 cross on the 1-hour chart","value":"+686.6 pips over 1,525 trades in 2024; −49.7 pips over 1,510 trades in 2025"},{"label":"The 14/3/3 long fade on the 1-hour chart in 2025","value":"106 trades, 60.38% win rate, −574.9 pips"}],"limitations":["The sample covers USD/JPY in 2024 and 2025, with candle-close fills and fixed spreads.","Variable spreads, execution differences and swap charges are excluded.","Pre-start candles are provided for indicator calculation, and positions still open at each period's end are closed.","Beyond the bars needed to compute K, smoothing and D, past bars are needed to detect a cross."]}