Does entering the moment a perfect order completes stay profitable?
Perfect Order Moving Averages: 2,400 Settings Tested
Finding
The timeframe split the result. Entering at the close of the bar where all three averages line up and exiting when the order breaks, settings profitable in both 2024 and 2025 numbered 157 of 200 on M15, 87 of 200 on H1 and 10 of 200 on H4. On four-hour bars 184 settings made money in 2024 and only 15 in 2025. The moving-average type also changed with the timeframe: all 40 EMA settings were profitable in both years on M15, while HMA led H1 at 36 of 40. Formiq's 10/25/75 SMA default was profitable in both years on M15 and H1, but the four-hour result reversed from +1,714.5 pips in 2024 to −904.3 in 2025.
Key results
- Profitable in both years
- 157 of 200 on M15, 87 of 200 on H1, 10 of 200 on H4
- Four-hour count by year
- 184 settings in 2024, 15 in 2025
- Moving-average type
- all 40 EMA settings profitable in both years on M15; HMA led H1 at 36 of 40
Scope
- USDJPY, 2024 and 2025, with 2025 also split into halves
- M15, H1 and H4
- Short 5/10/20/25 x middle 20/25/50/75 x long 50/75/100/200 filtered to 40 ascending triples x 5 moving-average types = 200 settings, 2,400 runs in total
- 0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots, no slippage
Method
Measured with Formiq's backtester. Entry is the close of the first bar with all three averages ordered; the exit is the close of the first bar that breaks the position's order. Up to 200 bars are loaded before each window so the long average is established before measurement begins.
Limitations
- USDJPY in 2024 and 2025, with 2025 also split into halves.
- Signals and fills both use the close, and the spread is fixed at 0.3 pips.
- Up to 200 bars are loaded before each window so the long average is established before measurement begins.
- Buying a pullback while the averages remain ordered, the slope of the averages and the distance between the lines were not tested.