Stoch RSI lost on every hourly setting in 2024
36 Stoch RSI settings backtested on USD/JPY across 2025 and 2024. All 36 lost money on hourly bars in 2024; on four-hour bars, 28 were profitable in both years.
Stoch RSI runs a stochastic over RSI. Rather than reading RSI's level, it reads where RSI sits inside its own range over the last N bars — a second layer of processing that makes it quicker to turn.
I tested four parameters across 36 combinations on USD/JPY through the whole of 2025, on three timeframes, then ran the same 36 on 2024.
On hourly bars, all 36 lost money in 2024. Only 13 of 36 were positive in 2025, and not one was positive in both years.
On four-hour bars, 28 of 36 were positive in both. Same indicator, same parameters, opposite outcome.
The timeframe split it cleanly
| Timeframe | Profitable 2025 | 2025 median | Profitable 2024 | 2024 median | Both years | Trades a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-minute | 3 / 36 | −756 pips | 2 / 36 | −1,297 pips | 0 / 36 | ~2,400 |
| 1-hour | 13 / 36 | −226 pips | 0 / 36 | −1,121 pips | 0 / 36 | ~610 |
| 4-hour | 28 / 36 | +518 pips | 36 / 36 | +1,503 pips | 28 / 36 | ~150 |
The trade count explains it.
Two layers of smoothing produce a great many signals: about 2,400 a year on 15-minute bars. For comparison, on the same terms QQE took 233 trades a year and Supertrend took 76.
Spread cost scales exactly with the count. At 2,400 trades a 0.3 pip spread is about 1,440 pips a year; at 610 it is 366. Only at the four-hour chart's 150 trades does the frequency start to fit the cost.
Inside the hourly results
| Setting | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Default 14/14/3/3 | 750 trades, 37.60% win, PF 0.977, −227.9 pips (19th of 36) | −2,244.2 pips (33rd) |
| Best of 2025, 14/21/3/5 | 572 trades, 40.91% win, PF 1.096, +756.9 pips | −1,788.1 pips (31st) |
| Best of 2024, 14/7/3/3 | −859.9 pips (31st) | −107.5 pips (still a loss) |
| Worst of 2025, 14/7/5/5 | −2,213.9 pips | −917.3 pips |
Note the third row. The best hourly setting of 2024 still lost 107.5 pips. With all 36 negative, "best" only means "lost least."
Rank correlation: −0.131. The order does not carry either.
Inside the four-hour results
| Setting | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Default 14/14/3/3 | 184 trades, 41.30% win, PF 1.251, +1,061.6 pips (6th) | +1,065.9 pips (26th) |
| Best of 2025, 7/7/5/3 | 158 trades, 47.47% win, PF 1.381, +1,485.6 pips | +400.6 pips (34th) |
| Best of 2024, 7/21/5/5 | −395.4 pips (34th) | +2,681.9 pips |
| Worst of 2025, 7/14/5/5 | −670.6 pips | +1,763.1 pips |
2024's first place came 34th in 2025, and 2025's first place came 34th in 2024. Rank correlation −0.089. Choosing settings does not pay here either.
But since all 36 were positive in 2024, any choice made money that year. The default 14/14/3/3 sat 6th and 26th, above +1,000 pips in both.
About the win rate
Across the 36 hourly settings in 2025, win rates ran 37.6% to 43.22%, median 40.0%, correlating −0.059 with net pips — nothing.
On four-hour bars the range widens to 37.5%–48.7% and the correlation rises to +0.331. Fewer trades, tighter link between win rate and result: a pattern that recurred across this whole series.
Adding it to a chart
| Platform | How to add it |
|---|---|
| MT4 / MT5 | Not included. Download an .ex4 or .mq4 into MQL4/Indicators (MQL5/Indicators on MT5), restart |
| TradingView | In the indicator list as "Stochastic RSI" |
| Browser (Formiq) | In the indicator list, with RSI period, stoch period, %K and %D adjustable |
How this was measured
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Pair | USD/JPY |
| Period | 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 (2024 run identically for comparison) |
| Timeframes | 15-minute / 1-hour / 4-hour |
| Bars tested | 6,226 hourly bars in 2025; 24,903 on 15-minute, 1,610 on 4-hour |
| Buy | %K crosses above %D, filled at that bar's close |
| Sell | %K crosses below %D |
| Exit | The opposite crossover only — no stop, no target, no time exit |
| Costs | 0.3 pip spread, zero slippage, 0.1 lot |
| Combinations | 3 RSI periods (7, 14, 21) × 3 stoch periods (7, 14, 21) × 2 %K (3, 5) × 2 %D (3, 5) = 36 |
| Method | Executed in Formiq's backtester; pips recomputed from each trade's fill prices |
What this test supports
- It does not work at hourly or below. All 36 hourly settings lost in 2024; zero survived both years on either fast timeframe
- The reason is frequency. 610 to 2,400 trades a year, and the spread outweighs what is earned
- Four-hour is the exception. 28 of 36 positive in both years, once the count falls to about 150
- Even there, settings do not transfer. 2024's best was 34th in 2025; rank correlation −0.089
- The default 14/14/3/3 held up on four-hour bars, above +1,000 pips in both years
Using this indicator means raising the timeframe until the trade count is bearable. The same constraint governs RVI. The RSI underneath it signals orders of magnitude less often without the two extra layers. Also tested this way: OsMA, Accelerator Oscillator, QQE, Aroon, Supertrend, Williams %R and MFI.
Limits of this test
- One pair, two years
- Stoch RSI implementations differ (how RSI is smoothed, how %K is taken). These figures come from Formiq's
- Only the %K/%D crossover is tested; level readings such as 20/80 are not, and would reduce the trade count
- Entries and exits both fill at bar closes
- The spread is modelled as a flat 0.3 pips, which matters more here than for any low-frequency indicator
- Four-hour settings trade 115 to 201 times a year
- Volatility varies by hour of the day
Questions people ask
- What are the best Stoch RSI settings?
- None on hourly bars: not one of the 36 was profitable in both years, and all 36 lost money in 2024. On four-hour bars 28 of 36 were profitable in both, with the default 14/14/3/3 returning +1,061.6 pips in 2025 (6th) and +1,065.9 in 2024 (26th).
- Which timeframe suits Stoch RSI?
- Four-hour, and only four-hour, in this test: 28 of 36 settings profitable in both years, against zero on hourly and zero on 15-minute. The hourly version trades about 610 times a year and the 15-minute one about 2,400.
- How is Stoch RSI different from RSI?
- It applies a stochastic to RSI: instead of reading RSI's value, it reads where RSI sits inside its own high-low range over the last N bars. The double processing makes it faster to react and produces far more signals.
- What win rate does Stoch RSI produce?
- Across the 36 hourly settings in 2025, 37.6% to 43.22% with a median of 40.0%. Positions are held from one %K/%D cross to the opposite one, so the win rate sits below 50% — and on hourly bars the result did not follow, with only 13 of 36 positive.
- Is Stoch RSI built into MetaTrader?
- No, neither MT4 nor MT5 includes it. You download an .ex4 or .mq4 into MQL4/Indicators (MQL5/Indicators on MT5) and restart. TradingView lists it as "Stochastic RSI". Formiq's charts include it with all four parameters adjustable.
Formiq is a free browser-based FX terminal with replay practice and no-code backtesting. Open the chart or see what the free plan includes.