Do any Aroon period, trigger and threshold combinations stay profitable?
Aroon Periods and Timeframes: 84 Settings Tested
Finding
Aroon came through weakly. Of the 84 hourly configurations in 2025, 43 were profitable at a median of +6 pips, which is close to a coin flip. On four-hour bars only 17 of 84 made money and just 3 came through both 2024 and 2025. On hourly bars 33 of 84 were profitable in both years; the largest 2025 result was period 30 with a threshold of 100, at 121 trades and +2,343.7 pips, but the same configuration made only +42.3 pips in 2024. In crossover mode five periods finished positive in both years — 7, 9, 12, 25 and 50 — with period 7 largest at +637.8 pips in 2025 and +1,135.9 in 2024, while the conventional 25 fell to +380.6 and +578.4 pips.
Key results
- The 84 hourly configurations in 2025
- 43 profitable, median +6 pips
- Profitable in both years
- 33 of 84 hourly, 3 on four-hour
- Crossover periods positive in both years
- 7, 9, 12, 25 and 50; period 7 at +637.8 and +1,135.9 pips
Scope
- USDJPY, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, with 2024 run under identical settings
- 15-minute, hourly and four-hour bars; 6,226 hourly bars in 2025, 24,903 on 15-minute and 1,610 on four-hour
- 12 periods (7 to 75) x [crossover, or one of 6 thresholds from 50 to 100] = 84 combinations per timeframe per year
- Flat 0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots, no slippage
Method
Measured with Formiq's backtester. In crossover mode a long opens at the close of the bar where Aroon Up crosses above Aroon Down; in level mode it opens when Up is at or above the threshold and Down is below it. Shorts mirror both. The only exit is the opposite signal, taken on the same bar that reverses the position. No stop, no target, no time exit.
Limitations
- One pair, two years.
- Four-hour configurations trade 15 to 188 times a year. Win rates and profit factors at that count are wide numbers before anything else is said about them.
- The trigger logic — how a cross is defined, whether a threshold comparison is inclusive — varies between tools. These figures come from Formiq's implementation.
- Entries and exits both fill at bar closes, and the spread is modelled as a flat 0.3 pips throughout; real spreads move with the session and around releases.