Backtest evidence

Do Ichimoku's standard settings and the three-signal alignment work, and do the time-theory change dates mean anything?

Is the Ichimoku Three-Signal Buy Profitable? 280 Settings Tested

Finding

The standard price/Kijun cross was positive in every year from 2022 through 2025 on the hourly chart. With standard 9/26/52 on H1 in 2025 the bullish and bearish three-signal alignment had the highest win rate at 43.43% and the largest net result at +1,085.2 pips of the four readings, but its 125-setting median was only +259.4 pips, so one setting does not settle it. Time theory did not hold. Counting the eight change-date numbers from mechanical swing anchors, local turns occurred on 34.26% of M15 dates, 34.19% on H1 and 35.49% on H4 — almost the same as matched dates three bars earlier or later. Kijun was unchanged from the preceding bar on 57.7% to 61.3% of bars.

Key results

Standard price/Kijun cross on H1
positive in all four years from 2022 through 2025
Three-signal alignment, standard 9/26/52 on H1 in 2025
43.43% win rate, +1,085.2 pips; 125-setting median +259.4 pips
Local-turn rate on the eight time-theory counts
34.26% M15, 34.19% H1, 35.49% H4, matching the control dates

Scope

  • USDJPY, 2022-01-01 to 2025-12-31, measured as four separate calendar years
  • M15, H1 and H4
  • 5 Tenkan (5 to 18) x 5 Kijun (20 to 36) x 5 Senkou Span B (40 to 72): 25 Tenkan/Kijun, 5 price/Kijun, 125 price/cloud and 125 three-signal settings, 280 per timeframe
  • 0.3 pip spread fixed, 0.1 lots, filled at the close

Method

Measured with Formiq's backtester. The only exit is the opposite signal, using the same rule set as entry, with no stop or target in the main sweep. Chikou cannot be read at the current bar's position without reading a future close, so it is handled in its usable form: today's close against the close 26 bars ago.

Limitations

  • One pair, USDJPY, and four calendar years.
  • Fills use the close, with a fixed 0.3 pip spread and 0.1 lots.
  • The main sweep exits on the opposite signal; stops and targets are measured separately.
  • The leading spans plot values already available today 26 bars to the right and use no future price. Chikou is converted to its present-time form because its plotted position cannot be backtested.
  • The time-theory anchors are chosen mechanically and do not match the highs and lows a person would call significant.