Backtest evidence

Across OsMA's three parameters, which timeframe keeps the settings profitable?

OsMA Settings by Timeframe: 54 Settings Tested

Finding

The hourly chart, decisively. All 54 hourly combinations were profitable in both 2025 and 2024, against 22 of 54 on four-hour and 13 of 54 on 15-minute bars, where the version trades about 1,940 times a year and the spread on that many trades outweighs what it earns. The 6/18/9 setting produced +3,133.1 pips from 631 trades in 2025 and +2,453.6 in 2024; the default 12/26/9 produced +2,223.6 and +3,152.1. Hourly win rates in 2025 ran from 34.02% to 39.89% with a median of 36.9% — holding through a zero-line crossover is trend following, so losses are frequent and small while winners run. OsMA is the MACD histogram itself: crossing above zero is the same event as the MACD line crossing above its signal.

Key results

Profitable in both years
54 of 54 hourly, 22 of 54 four-hour, 13 of 54 on 15-minute
Hourly 6/18/9 and the default 12/26/9
6/18/9 +3,133.1 / +2,453.6 pips; 12/26/9 +2,223.6 / +3,152.1 pips
Hourly win rates in 2025
34.02% to 39.89%, median 36.9%

Scope

  • USDJPY, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, with 2024 run identically for comparison
  • 15-minute, hourly and four-hour bars; 6,226 hourly bars in 2025, 24,903 on 15-minute, 1,610 on four-hour
  • 5 fast (6 to 24) x 4 slow (18 to 60) x 3 signal (5 to 15) periods, keeping fast < slow: 54 combinations
  • 0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots, zero slippage

Method

Measured with Formiq's backtester. A long fills at the close of the bar where OsMA crosses above zero and a short where it crosses below; the only exit is the opposite zero crossing, reversing on the same bar. No stop, no target, no time exit.

Limitations

  • One pair, two years.
  • OsMA inherits whatever the MACD implementation does, including how its EMAs are seeded. These figures come from Formiq's.
  • Entries and exits both fill at bar closes.
  • The spread is modelled as a flat 0.3 pips; the 15-minute result depends heavily on that.
  • Four-hour settings trade 69 to 220 times a year: wide numbers at that count.