Backtest evidence

Which timeframe keeps Squeeze Momentum's three parameters profitable?

Squeeze Momentum by Timeframe: 45 Settings Tested

Finding

The 15-minute and hourly charts. Settings profitable in both years numbered 29 of 45 on 15-minute bars and 24 of 45 hourly, against 1 of 45 on four-hour. Four-hour settings trade 0 to 80 times a year and 8 of the 45 never traded at all; 26 were profitable in 2024 and only 5 in 2025. The largest hourly result in 2025 came from 10/2/1 at 225 trades and +1,234.2 pips, and it also made +1,536.6 in 2024; the default 20/2/1.5 made +398.3 pips in 2025 and +1,530.5 in 2024. The two band multipliers only affect the squeeze detection — the momentum value itself depends on the period alone.

Key results

Profitable in both years
29 of 45 on 15-minute, 24 of 45 hourly, 1 of 45 four-hour
Hourly 2025 leader and the default
10/2/1 at 225 trades and +1,234.2 pips; 20/2/1.5 at +398.3 pips
Four-hour trade counts
0 to 80 a year; 8 of 45 never traded

Scope

  • USDJPY, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, with 2024 run identically for comparison
  • 15-minute, hourly and four-hour bars; 6,226 hourly bars in 2025, 24,903 on 15-minute, 1,610 on four-hour
  • 5 periods (10 to 40) x 3 Bollinger multipliers (1.5, 2, 2.5) x 3 Keltner multipliers (1, 1.5, 2) = 45 combinations
  • 0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots, zero slippage

Method

Measured with Formiq's backtester. A squeeze is the Bollinger Bands sitting inside the Keltner Channel; on the bar it releases, a long opens if momentum is positive and a short if negative. The exit is momentum crossing zero the other way. No stop, no target, no time exit, and momentum turns during a squeeze are not taken.

Limitations

  • One pair, two years.
  • Squeeze Momentum implementations differ in how the momentum regression is taken and which midline it uses. These figures come from Formiq's.
  • Entries are restricted to the bar a squeeze releases on; momentum turns during a squeeze are not taken.
  • Entries and exits both fill at bar closes, and the spread is modelled as a flat 0.3 pips.
  • Four-hour settings trade 0 to 80 times a year and 8 of 45 never trade. Win rates and profit factors at that count are wide numbers.