STC: the default setting came 66th of 72
72 Schaff Trend Cycle settings backtested on USD/JPY across 2025 and 2024. The default lost money and placed 66th in 2025, while one setting led both years.
The Schaff Trend Cycle runs a double stochastic over MACD and bounds the result between 0 and 100 — built to turn faster than MACD while cutting the whipsaws a range produces.
I tested four parameters across 72 combinations on USD/JPY through the whole of 2025, on three timeframes, then ran the same 72 on 2024.
Two things stand out: the default lost money and placed 66th of 72 in 2025, and one setting ranked first in both years.
The default sank
| 1-hour | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Default 23/50/10, level 25 | 204 trades, 41.67% win, PF 0.967, −172.2 pips (66th of 72) | +2,062.2 pips (13th) |
| Best of 2025, 23/80/10, level 40 | 188 trades, 47.34% win, PF 1.457, +1,813.4 pips (1st) | +2,820.9 pips (1st) |
| Worst of 2025, 10/80/20, level 10 | −990.4 pips | +1,714.9 pips |
The default made +2,062.2 pips and placed 13th in 2024, then went negative at 66th in 2025. No other default in this series moved that far — OsMA and the Accelerator Oscillator both kept theirs in the top half of both years.
The setting that topped both years
Row two: 23/80/10 at level 40 was first of 72 in 2025 and first of 72 in 2024.
Everywhere else in this series, one year's winner fell down the table the next. This is the first time the same setting led twice.
It is worth being careful about what that means. Search 72 settings across two years and one landing near the top in both is not a surprising outcome. The hourly rank correlation is +0.014 — across the whole set, last year's ordering carries no information at all. One match inside that is the accurate reading.
For what it is worth, here is the setting itself:
| 23/80/10, level 40 | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 188 | 182 |
| Win rate | 47.34% | — |
| Profit factor | 1.457 | — |
| Net | +1,813.4 pips | +2,820.9 pips |
About 180 trades a year is mid-range for this series. Unlike the eight- and 26-trade profit factors seen on four-hour Aroon and Supertrend, this is not a number that thin sampling explains away.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Profitable 2025 | 2025 median | Profitable 2024 | 2024 median | Both years | Trades a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-minute | 19 / 72 | −566 pips | 17 / 72 | −725 pips | 10 / 72 | ~760 |
| 1-hour | 57 / 72 | +536 pips | 55 / 72 | +974 pips | 43 / 72 | ~180 |
| 4-hour | 55 / 72 | +434 pips | 44 / 72 | +289 pips | 33 / 72 | ~49 |
At 760 trades a year the cost bites again, leaving 10 of 72 on 15-minute bars.
Four-hour falls to about 49 trades and 33 of 72 — below hourly's 43.
On four-hour bars the level flips
| 4-hour | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Default 23/50/10, level 25 | 51 trades, 52.94% win, PF 1.405, +858.0 pips (28th) | +322.5 pips (35th) |
| Best of 2025, 10/30/10, level 10 | 57 trades, 54.39% win, PF 2.121, +2,172.9 pips | +71.3 pips (42nd) |
| Best of 2024, 40/50/5, level 25 | +700.1 pips (31st) | +2,101.6 pips |
Hourly's winner used level 40 — entering early. Four-hour's 2025 winner used level 10 — waiting for a deeper reading. The same indicator wants the opposite answer on a different timeframe.
Four-hour win rates span 30.56% to 69.44%, which is what 49 trades a year looks like.
About the win rate
Across the 72 hourly settings in 2025, win rates ran 32.16% to 50.86% with a median of 42.4%, correlating +0.198 with net pips. On four-hour bars that rises to +0.632.
Fewer trades, tighter link between win rate and result — the same pattern as everywhere else in this series.
Adding STC to a chart
| Platform | How to add it |
|---|---|
| MT4 / MT5 | Not included. Download an .ex4 or .mq4 into MQL4/Indicators (MQL5/Indicators on MT5), restart |
| TradingView | In the indicator list as "Schaff Trend Cycle" |
| Browser (Formiq) | In the indicator list, with fast, slow and stoch period adjustable |
How this was measured
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Pair | USD/JPY |
| Period | 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 (2024 run identically for comparison) |
| Timeframes | 15-minute / 1-hour / 4-hour |
| Bars tested | 6,226 hourly bars in 2025; 24,903 on 15-minute, 1,610 on 4-hour |
| Buy | STC crosses above the level (10, 25 or 40), filled at that bar's close |
| Sell | STC crosses below "100 − level" |
| Exit | The opposite level crossing only — no stop, no target, no time exit |
| Costs | 0.3 pip spread, zero slippage, 0.1 lot |
| Combinations | 3 fast (10, 23, 40) × 3 slow (30, 50, 80) × 3 stoch periods (5, 10, 20) × 3 levels, keeping fast < slow: 72 |
| Method | Executed in Formiq's backtester; pips recomputed from each trade's fill prices |
What this test supports
- Its default cannot be trusted. 66th of 72 and negative in 2025, 13th in 2024 — the widest default swing in this series
- Hourly is the timeframe. 43 of 72 profitable in both years, against 10 on 15-minute
- One setting led both years (23/80/10, level 40) — but the overall rank correlation is +0.014, so read it as a single exception
- The level's best direction flips with the timeframe: 40 on hourly, 10 on four-hour in 2025
- Four-hour is 49 trades a year, with win rates from the 30s to the 60s — too thin to lean on
The same method applied to OsMA, Accelerator Oscillator, Stoch RSI, QQE, Aroon, RVI, Supertrend, Williams %R and MFI.
Limits of this test
- One pair, two years
- "First in both years" is an agreement between two years. Across 72 settings, that much coincidence is available by chance
- STC implementations differ (the smoothing constants inside the double stochastic). These figures come from Formiq's
- Entries and exits both fill at bar closes
- The spread is modelled as a flat 0.3 pips
- Four-hour settings trade 31 to 89 times a year — wide numbers at that count
- Volatility varies by hour of the day
Questions people ask
- What are the best STC settings?
- On hourly bars, 23/80/10 with a level of 40 ranked first in both 2025 (+1,813.4 pips) and 2024 (+2,820.9 pips) — the only setting in this series of tests to top both years. With 72 settings across two years, one such match can happen by chance, so treat it as an exception rather than a rule.
- How did the default 23/50/10 do?
- It came 66th of 72 on hourly bars in 2025, losing 172.2 pips, after placing 13th in 2024 with +2,062.2 pips. Other indicators in this series had defaults that stayed mid-pack; STC's swung further than any of them.
- Which timeframe suits STC?
- Hourly and four-hour: 43 of 72 settings profitable in both years on hourly and 33 of 72 on four-hour, against 10 of 72 on 15-minute. The 15-minute version trades about 760 times a year.
- Which STC level should I use?
- The test covered buy levels of 10, 25 and 40. On hourly bars the best of both years used 40 — reacting early. On four-hour bars the best of 2025 used 10, waiting for a deeper reading. The direction of the answer flips with the timeframe.
- Is STC built into MetaTrader?
- No, neither MT4 nor MT5 includes it. You download an .ex4 or .mq4 into MQL4/Indicators (MQL5/Indicators on MT5) and restart. TradingView lists it as "Schaff Trend Cycle". Formiq's charts include it with all four parameters adjustable.
Formiq is a free browser-based FX terminal with replay practice and no-code backtesting. Open the chart or see what the free plan includes.