Supertrend settings: only the multiplier does anything

Supertrend arrives with two numbers attached: an ATR period of 10 and a multiplier of 3. Two knobs, equal billing.

I moved both. Six periods by six multipliers is 36 combinations, backtested across the whole of 2025 on USD/JPY, on three timeframes, then run again on 2024.

The period did almost nothing. Taking it from 5 to 30 — six times wider — moved the hourly trade count between 102 and 106 a year, and the average result by 200 pips.

The multiplier did the work. From 1.5 to 5, the trade count went from 204 a year to 40.

hourly, 2025 — trades per year, averaged over every value of the other knob

What Supertrend calculates

1. Average True Range over N bars ← the period
2. Bands placed above and below the midpoint at ATR × multiplier ← the multiplier
3. Price breaking a band sets the trend direction; the line trails on the other side

Two knobs, but not two equal effects:

• Changing the period changes how many bars go into the ATR. On USD/JPY the ATR at period 5 and at period 30 are close to each other, so the band width hardly moves
• Changing the multiplier scales that ATR directly. The band width moves with it

Band width sets how often price breaks through. So the multiplier alone sets the trade count.

The measurements say the same thing, and the figure at the top of this article is that comparison.

Position	Trades a year, changing the period	Trades a year, changing the multiplier
1st	period 5 → 106	multiplier 1.5 → 204
2nd	period 7 → 104	multiplier 2 → 145
3rd	period 10 → 103	multiplier 2.5 → 101
4th	period 14 → 102	multiplier 3 → 79
5th	period 20 → 103	multiplier 4 → 52
6th	period 30 → 104	multiplier 5 → 40

(Hourly bars, 2025, each averaged over all six values of the other knob.)

Adding Supertrend to a chart

Platform	How to add it
MT4 / MT5	Not included. Download an .ex4 or .mq4 into MQL4/Indicators (MQL5/Indicators on MT5), restart
TradingView	In the indicator list as "Supertrend"
Browser (Formiq)	In the indicator list, with period and multiplier both adjustable

How this was measured

Item	Value
Pair	USD/JPY
Period	2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 (2024 run identically for comparison)
Timeframes	15-minute / 1-hour / 4-hour
Bars tested	6,226 hourly bars in 2025; 24,903 on 15-minute, 1,610 on 4-hour
Buy	Supertrend flips upward, filled at that bar's close
Sell	It flips downward
Exit	The opposite flip only — no stop, no target, no time exit
Costs	0.3 pip spread, zero slippage, 0.1 lot
Combinations	6 periods (5–30) × 6 multipliers (1.5–5) = 36, per timeframe and per year
Method	Executed in Formiq's backtester; pips recomputed from each trade's fill prices

The whole grid

profitlosshourly · colour depth = size of the year's net result · rows = period, columns = multiplier

Hourly bars, 2025, net pips:

Period ＼ Multiplier	1.5	2	2.5	3	4	5
5	−63	+185	+963	+504	+572	+287
7	−32	+171	+545	+534	+404	+139
10	−10	−95	+363	+561	+511	+152
14	−43	+249	+455	+337	+790	+245
20	+215	−64	+444	−71	+662	+61
30	+537	−157	+908	−149	+652	+23

Reading down a column produces no pattern. Reading across, the 1.5 column is the only one that is flat or negative throughout, and 2.5 and 4 are the good ones.

The same grid for 2024:

Period ＼ Multiplier	1.5	2	2.5	3	4	5
5	+961	+1,649	+1,333	+1,202	−41	+1,458
7	+1,499	+1,641	+941	+1,062	+59	+1,468
10	+1,575	+1,488	+647	+1,350	+325	+1,791
14	+1,494	+539	+653	+1,543	−35	+1,870
20	+1,675	+360	+699	+863	−170	+221
30	+1,881	+577	+652	+656	+752	+679

Almost entirely green — and the 1.5 column is now the best one. The worst column of 2025. Even the multiplier's direction swaps between years.

Multiplier	2025 average	2024 average	Trades a year
1.5	+101 pips	+1,514 pips	204
2	+48 pips	+1,042 pips	145
2.5	+613 pips	+821 pips	101
3	+286 pips	+1,113 pips	79
4	+599 pips	+148 pips	52
5	+151 pips	+1,248 pips	40

How the default did

Period 10, multiplier 3	2025	2024
15-minute	330 trades, 35.45% win, +563.0 pips (6th)	+1,725.6 pips (2nd)
1-hour	76 trades, 46.05% win, +560.7 pips (7th)	+1,349.6 pips (14th)
4-hour	21 trades, 52.38% win, −101.4 pips (16th)	+2,231.3 pips (6th)

On 15-minute and hourly bars the default was profitable and top-half in both years. Of the four indicators tested this way so far, Supertrend is the only one whose default held up that cleanly.

Chasing the annual winner still fails. The 2025 leader (5 / 2.5) placed 15th in 2024; the 2024 leader (30 / 1.5) placed 9th in 2025. Rank correlation between years: −0.231 on hourly, +0.242 on 15-minute.

The four-hour chart

Timeframe	Profitable 2025	Profitable 2024	Both years	Rank correlation
15-minute	26 / 36	31 / 36	24 / 36	+0.242
1-hour	27 / 36	33 / 36	24 / 36	−0.231
4-hour	10 / 36	30 / 36	4 / 36	−0.552

Only four-hour collapses, and there is a reason.

The best four-hour combination of 2024 was period 30 with a multiplier of 5:

	2024	2025
Trades	8	15
Win rate	62.50%	—
Profit factor	5.780	—
Net	+2,457.9 pips	−1,162.5 pips

Eight trades. A profit factor of 5.78 means five wins out of eight and nothing more. The next year it lost 1,162.5 pips, 33rd of 36.

Four-hour combinations trade 8 to 55 times a year, and raising the multiplier lowers that further — the multiplier-5 row runs 5 to 15 — so multiplier 5 on four-hour bars is structurally a setting whose numbers swing. The better it looks, the less it means.

What low frequency buys

Trading rarely is this indicator's practical advantage.

Supertrend 10/3Aroon 25 crossoverQQE 17/3/4.236RVI 10dashed line = trades × 2.0 pips

Indicator (hourly, 2025)	Trades a year	Pips lost, 0 → 2.0 spread
Supertrend 10/3	76	152 pips
Aroon 25 crossover	115	230 pips
QQE 17/3/4.236	233	466 pips
RVI 10	547	1,094 pips

Every one is exactly trades × spread. Supertrend trades least of the four, so it pays least.

Spread	1-hour 10/3 (76 trades)	15-minute 10/3 (330 trades)
0.0 pips	+583.5	+662.0
0.3 pips	+560.7	+563.0
1.0 pips	+507.5	+332.0
2.0 pips	+431.5	+2.0

The hourly version keeps +431.5 pips even at a 2.0 pip spread. The 15-minute version lands on exactly zero.

Win rate and filters

On hourly bars in 2025, win rate and net pips had a rank correlation of 0.668 — the highest of the four indicators tested this way (QQE was 0.078, Aroon 0.614). Higher-win-rate settings did tend to make more.

There is a matching negative: trade count against net pips correlates −0.322. Fewer trades, better result. Raising the multiplier — which cuts frequency — lifted both the win rate and the profit together.

Filters, added to the default:

Condition	2025	2024
Supertrend alone	76 trades, 46.05% win, +560.7 pips	78 trades, 51.28% win, +1,349.6 pips
ADX ≥ 20	52 trades, 48.08% win, +364.2 pips	53 trades, 35.85% win, +896.4 pips
ADX ≥ 30	26 trades, 53.85% win, +345.6 pips	27 trades, 33.33% win, −153.5 pips
Tokyo hours only	38 trades, 39.47% win, +88.2 pips	41 trades, 34.15% win, −275.1 pips
London/NY hours only	64 trades, 43.75% win, +721.8 pips	62 trades, 43.55% win, +1,722.9 pips

ADX lowered the result in both years. Screening for trend strength on something that is already a trend-following signal removed profit, not risk.

The London/NY filter improved both years (+721.8 and +1,722.9, each above the unfiltered figure) — the first filter in this series to point the same way twice.

Stops and targets

Exit rule	2025	2024
Opposite flip only	76 trades, 46.05% win, +560.7 pips	78 trades, 51.28% win, +1,349.6 pips
Stop 100 / target 200	87 trades, 47.13% win, +1,729.7 pips	89 trades, 32.58% win, +363.9 pips
Stop 50 / target 100	115 trades, 39.13% win, +676.9 pips	114 trades, 36.84% win, +369.9 pips
Stop 50 / target 50	129 trades, 54.26% win, +649.2 pips	132 trades, 51.52% win, +449.2 pips
Time exit after 24 bars	110 trades, 51.82% win, +1,419.4 pips	116 trades, 45.69% win, +497.6 pips

All five made money in both years — also a first in this series. But none of them beats holding to the opposite flip in 2024's +1,349.6. Riding the flip is what the indicator is for; cutting early gives part of that away.

Stop 50 / target 50 puts the win rate above 50% in both years without adding profit.

What this test supports

1. The period barely does anything. Six times wider, and the trade count stays between 102 and 106 — the ATR window changes but the band width does not
2. The multiplier is the real knob. 1.5 to 5 takes 204 trades a year down to 40. Its best value still swaps between years (2.5 and 4 in 2025, 1.5 in 2024)
3. The default 10/3 was top-half and positive in both years on 15-minute and hourly — the steadiest default of the four indicators tested this way
4. Avoid the four-hour chart here. Four of 36 profitable in both years, on 8 to 55 trades
5. Trading rarely is what makes it cost-tolerant. The only setting in this series still clearly profitable at a 2.0 pip spread
6. London/NY hours helped in both years — the first consistent filter across these tests

The same method applied to QQE, Aroon, RVI and moving average crossovers. Building the rules without code is how to repeat any of it on your own pair.

Limits of this test

• One pair, two years
• Supertrend implementations differ in how the ATR is averaged (simple or Wilder) and in the band's trailing rule. These figures come from Formiq's
• Entries and exits both fill at bar closes
• The spread is modelled as a flat 0.3 pips for the whole period
• Four-hour combinations trade 8 to 55 times a year. Win rates and profit factors at that count are wide numbers before anything else is said about them
• USD/JPY opened 2025 at 157.227 and closed at 156.670 (−56 pips) inside a 1,900-pip range; 2024 rose 1,632 pips inside a 2,237-pip range. For a trend-following indicator that difference is large, and 2024 was probably the friendlier year
• Volatility varies by hour of the day, which the session-filter rows are exposed to