Backtest evidence

Which Supertrend setting moves the result: the period or the multiplier?

Supertrend Periods and Multipliers: 36 Settings Tested

Finding

The multiplier. On hourly bars, moving the period from 5 to 30 moved the trade count only from 212 to 207 a year, while moving the multiplier from 1.5 to 5 took it from 408 trades to 80. The spread in average 2025 net pips was 406 across periods and 1,142 across multipliers. Fifteen-minute and hourly bars both had 21 of 36 combinations profitable in both 2024 and 2025; four-hour had all 36 profitable in 2024 but only 10 in 2025. The default period 10 with multiplier 3 returned +1,121.8 pips in 2025 and +1,145.0 in 2024 on hourly bars. Period 30 with multiplier 5 made +2,663.7 pips in 2024 but +52.2 in 2025: the fewer the trades, the more a year swings.

Key results

Trade count across period and multiplier, hourly
212 to 207 a year across periods; 408 to 80 across multipliers
Profitable in both years
21 of 36 on 15-minute and hourly; four-hour 36 of 36 in 2024, 10 of 36 in 2025
The default 10/3 on hourly bars
+1,121.8 pips in 2025, +1,145.0 in 2024

Scope

  • USDJPY, 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, with 2024 run identically for comparison
  • 15-minute, hourly and four-hour bars; 6,226 hourly bars in 2025, 24,903 on 15-minute, 1,610 on four-hour
  • 6 periods (5 to 30) x 6 multipliers (1.5 to 5) = 36 combinations, per timeframe and per year
  • 0.3 pip spread, 0.1 lots, zero slippage

Method

Measured with Formiq's backtester. A long fills at the close of the bar where Supertrend turns up and a short where it turns down; the only exit is the opposite turn. No stop, no target, no time exit. Pips are recalculated from each trade's fill prices.

Limitations

  • One pair, two years.
  • Supertrend implementations differ in how the ATR is averaged (simple or Wilder) and in the band's trailing rule. These figures come from Formiq's.
  • Entries and exits both fill at bar closes, and the spread is modelled as a flat 0.3 pips for the whole period.
  • Four-hour combinations trade 26 to 110 times a year, and 26 to 29 at multiplier 5. Win rates and profit factors at that count are wide numbers.